Some coaches are so successful and have such an impact on their team that they are considered “legendary.” When they step down from their position and the team transitions to a new head coach, there will likely be a great deal of uncertainty concerning how the team will perform in this new situation; thus, it may take time for the betting markets to adjust. The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of a sports betting market for the rare situation in which a legend steps down from the head coaching position. Data from the National Football League are analyzed using a novel implementation of classification trees to determine if and when a market inefficiency exists in the subsequent season. We find a potential bias early in the following season before the market appears to adjust to the new coach.

DOI: http://doi.org/10.32731/IJSF/202.052025.01